While the IRGC Runs Iran, There Will Be No Peace

President Trump must not let Tehran dictate Israeli policy.

Benjamin Netanyahu made Israel’s stance clear in a Monday video on X.

Just after midnight, President Trump on Truth Social essentially asked Capitol Hill and the pundits for more time as he negotiates with Iran. He implored supporters and critics: “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does!”

Iran, however, had other ideas.

Early this morning, for the second time in three days, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched what it claimed were retaliatory strikes using drones and a ballistic missile against American military forces stationed at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, tweeted, “Iran’s strikes against those bases & assets that are used to launch unlawful attacks against Iran are a lawful exercise of self-defense.”

Hours later, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, ratcheted up the heat in Lebanon. He said that any “violation of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel on one front is a violation on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

Unfazed by Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiyeh, remains out of bounds.” The Israel Defense Forces then issued evacuation orders for Dahiyeh, suggesting that Israeli airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold are in the making. Especially if Iran’s proxy keeps firing rockets into northern and central Israel.

In response, Iran announced via Tasnim, a semi-state-controlled media company, it was immediately suspending talks with the United States and would not resume them until Israel stops attacking Lebanon and withdraws all its forces from the country.

That is not going to happen. Jerusalem will not subordinate its national-security interests in Lebanon to peace talks to end the war in Iran.

Hamas’ heinous October 7 terrorist attacks fundamentally changed Israel’s calculus. The IDF has been on offense ever since, and it is not going to stop until Iran’s ability to threaten Israel is eliminated.

Consequently, the IRGC is in panic mode. It can ill afford to lose Hezbollah as one of its last remaining strategic checks on Israel. Iran is not concerned about Lebanon itself. Israel is pushing the extremist group farther north in Lebanon as the IDF conduct ground operations north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon. As a result, Hezbollah and Iran are running out of options to stop the Israelis.

Scuttling peace talks with Mr. Trump is, in that vein, one last desperate roll of the dice by the IRGC to save Hezbollah, the crown jewel of its “Axis of Resistance.” It is a big gamble. Iran is vowing to “completely” block the Strait of Hormuz.

Plus Iran is threatening to expand the playing board by involving the IRGC-backed Houthis in Yemen. Tehran declared it is also going to block the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. If successful, it would create a stranglehold on maritime traffic transiting the Suez Canal in Egypt.

The IRGC is essentially embracing a “Go big or go home” strategy against the United States and Israel. That includes a new Iranian threat to attack Israel directly if the IDF conducts airstrikes in Lebanon.

By midday, Mr. Trump intervened. He announced on Truth Social that Mr. Netanyahu and Hezbollah “agreed that all shooting would stop” after he spoke with both. Minutes later, he posted, “Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

In the balance: Iran’s power play against the Trump administration hinges around the price of oil. Oil futures are surging. They were up 7 percent early in the trading day.

It is also a deeper play. Iran has no intention of permanently giving up its enriched-uranium program or pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The IRGC desperately needs Hezbollah to survive as a strategic check against Israel while it continues to chase nukes. That should tell the White House everything it needs to know about Iran’s long-term intentions. Peace is not one of them. That will not happen as long as the IRGC remains in power.

Mr. Netanyahu gets it. This afternoon on X, he said he told Mr. Trump that Israel reserves the right to strike “terror targets in Beirut” if Hezbollah continues attacking Israeli “cities and citizens.”

Mr. Trump may be trying to calm the oil markets. Prices did drop several points after his Truth Social posts, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures settling at $92.54 a barrel (a nearly 6 percent gain on the day) and Brent crude at $94.98 (a 4.24 percent rise).

Nonetheless, the optics are not good. Mr. Trump is making it appear Iran is dictating terms to the United States by getting Washington to stop its Israeli ally from destroying the IRGC’s proxy.