Trump’s Iran Deal Does Not Survive Contact
Your guide to what's news in foreign affairs — and why it matters.
Not even 24 hours after President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in Versailles, France, the Islamic Republic is threatening to walk away from the deal after Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. That was in response to Hezbollah’s Friday attack on an Israeli tank that killed four Israel Defense Forces soldiers, including Lieutenant Colonel Dor Gedalia Ben Simhon, commander of the 52nd Battalion in the 401st Brigade.
Iran alleges the United States violated the deal’s first term, which declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”
Israel may be part of the challenge, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps proxy Hezbollah’s occupation and militarization of Lebanon is primarily the source of the conflict. Iran funds, trains, equips, and provides direction to the terrorist group. Its members act at the behest of their masters in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not tolerate their continued presence in Lebanon — and attacks on Israel.
And it is not limited to Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently complained to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that Iran is “using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in their negotiation with U.S.”
“It’s not your country, it’s our country,” he said, addressing the IRGC. “We are fed up, and we want to live in peace.”
That is not going to happen as long as Hezbollah continues to occupy their country and launch attacks against Israel.
In the balance: Mr. Trump could not deliver the Donbas to Russia, and he is not going to deliver Lebanon to the Islamic Republic of Iran either. Working with allies has not been one of this administration’s strong suits — dictating to them has been more of the norm. As Israel has shown, its national-security interests override any deal the United States has made with Iran.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, made it clear today that any talks would remain bound by Tehran’s “red lines” — a halt to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Yet Iran’s IRGC continues to instigate contact between Hezbollah and Israel.
Mr. Trump must acknowledge that these Israeli strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks on Israeli troops. The actions by Hezbollah are deliberate — Iranian hardliners designed them to invoke a kinetic response by Israel that Tehran can use as leverage against Washington to get Jerusalem to withdraw from Lebanon. At stake: oil and the revenue it generates.
The entirety of the 14-point agreement rests upon a non-signatory country the United States cannot control.
Decision point: “Territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Lebanon” belongs to the people of Lebanon — not Iran or Hezbollah. For those things to be respected, Hezbollah would have to disarm and withdraw from the country; so too would their IRGC advisers. Israel is not going to compromise its national security for a deal between America and Iran. For this to remain a condition, Iran must abandon its support of Hezbollah and its occupation of Lebanon.
The White House should consider provisions contained in the 2006 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and its enforcement as part of the solution: full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Hezbollah and other forces from Lebanon south of the Litani River, the disarmament of Hezbollah and other armed groups, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon — with no armed forces other than the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and Lebanese military south of the Litani — and Lebanon’s need to fully exert government control.
The ceasefire — renewed ceasefire — Israel and Hezbollah signed today is a step in the right direction, but until Iran is removed from the equation, it’s unlikely to hold.
 | A guest post by
|
 | A guest post by
|