Trump Must Find a Lebanon Solution
Your guide to what's news in foreign affairs — and why it matters.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has made Lebanon the focal point of the 14-point memorandum of understanding it signed with the United States last week. It is the first point — the remaining 13 points are contingent upon the “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” and “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”
By design, any reprisal attacks by the Israel Defense Forces against Hezbollah terrorists can — and will be — used by Iran to halt negotiations and drive a wedge further between the United States and Israel.
Iran cannot defeat Israel, so it is using the first point of the memo as a tool to get America to pressure Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. That did not work for Russian President Vladimir Putin with Ukraine in the Donbas, and it is not likely to work with Israel in Lebanon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose their national security over unilateral “deals” President Trump made with Russia and Iran.
On Tuesday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reiterated Mr. Netanyahu’s position that Israel will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Iran-backed Hezbollah remains active and his government stays in power: “It simply will not happen.”
The IDF continues to clear areas of southern Lebanon. On Sunday it uncovered a massive tunnel complex near the village of Majdal Zoun — not even four miles from the Israeli border — where Hezbollah “built an underground drone ‘airbase’ from which it launched Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles at Israel.”
In the balance: Hezbollah has occupied and militarized southern Lebanon for decades. It ius firmly entrenched in the region as Sunday’s IDF operation clearly demonstrated. This despite the 2006 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandated the disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its forces south of the Litani River.
As we saw last week, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisers will continue to use their Hezbollah proxy to attack Israel at Tehran’s behest. The White House gets it as Mr. Trump sent a warning to Iran on Truth Social Sunday telling Tehran that it “must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”
Decision point: The solution to Lebanon is not the establishment of a deconfliction cell — that simply validates Hezbollah’s continued occupation of the region. To obtain a “permanent termination of the war in Lebanon” both Hezbollah and IDF forces will have to withdraw from the region and return it to its rightful owner — the Lebanese people.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun made that clear in his interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour two weeks ago. “It’s not your country, it’s our country,” he said, addressing Iran. “We are fed up, and we want to live in peace.”
Hezbollah will have to be disarmed, its infrastructure in southern Lebanon dismantled, and it physically escorted out of southern Lebanon before Israel withdraws. The Lebanese Armed Forces — in its current capacity — cannot do this on its own though, and the United Nations has demonstrated over the past 20 years it can not accomplish the mission either.
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