Tit-For-Tat Diplomacy Won't Solve Trump's Iran Problem
As the saying goes: Three strikes, and you're out.
Iran — via its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy — responded to President Trump’s demand for a public statement promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz open toll free and stop striking commercial ships by attacking Saturday yet another ship transiting through the strait near Oman: the M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship.
U.S. Central Command responded to the IRGC’s third attack on shipping with a third round of strikes, against “140 Iranian military targets with precision munitions launched by land- and sea-based fighter aircraft, drones, and naval vessels. Targets included Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance locations.”
Iran retaliated Sunday by attacking U.S. bases in Jordan and its Gulf State neighbors — countries that have yet to strike back — with ballistic missiles and drones.
CENTCOM then declared late Monday afternoon, “At 4:45 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command began launching the third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, at the Commander in Chief’s direction. These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Another round of tit-for-tat diplomacy, and quite frankly, IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi is okay with that. These retaliatory strikes, one-offs, measured responses, or whatever you want to call them threaten neither Mr. Vahidi nor the regime.
The IRGC remains in power, and it continues to threaten the strait.
In the balance: For the White House, keeping the flow of oil through Hormuz is job No. 1. The president can say “Iran will have no nukes” all he wants, but ultimately he will be judged upon whether or not oil flows through the strait. Especially in November.
Winning solves the problem — chasing a deal is not working.
Case in point, the president’s own words Monday morning on “Fox & Friends”: “We had a deal. It was a done deal, and then they broke it. They always break it. We’ve had 10 deals with these people.”
That may change though. Mr. Trump said on the program, “We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that.”
Later on his Truth Social account, he said America “will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately.”
Decision point: As the saying goes, “Three strikes, and you’re out.” Keeping the strait implies securing the strait, and that requires denying the IRGC the ability to launch attacks on ships — via speed boats and drones — transiting the strait. And that will require securing and occupying key terrain along the Iranian coastline: boots on the ground.
Providing temporary escort support through the strait as a “guardian angel” is an acceptable temporary solution; but as Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last week, it is an international waterway, and “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees” in the Strait of Hormuz.
Establishing a Gulf State commission to manage the strait — similar to Turkish control of all maritime passage between the Mediterranean and Black seas through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits via the 1936 Montreux Convention — may be a better solution.
The goal can no longer be getting Iran to return to the negotiating table; rather, it must be to remove the IRGC-led regime from power.
The president suggested on Fox News this morning he is going to keep the strait — then charge countries to use it.
Let’s hope after “10” failed deals with Iran, he follows up on this threat.
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