Putin Turns to Belarus for Help as Ukraine Routinely Strikes Deep Into Russia

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Vladimir Putin welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to St. Petersburg’s Constantine Palace four months after launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Presidential Executive Office of Russia

CAUGHT IN UKRAINE’S WEB

June 1 marked the one-year anniversary of Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web. The action was ingenious — conducted by infiltrating drones inside Russia and using President Vladimir Putin’s own cargo trucks to launch them — second only to the Mossad’s use of explosive pagers to target senior Hezbollah leaders in September 2024, which killed or maimed around 3,000 members and officers.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched drone strikes against four strategic air bases — Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo, and Ivanovo — that spanned the length and breadth of Russia. Kyiv reportedly struck more than 40 Russian military aircraft.

Operational video showed two Tupolev “Bear” Tu-95 strategic bombers that were likely destroyed — the same type of Russian aircraft Mr. Putin used to launch missiles against Ukrainian civilian population centers across the country. Six of those bombers came from the northern Russian Olenya Airbase in Murmansk near the border with Finland.

Ukraine — a country President Trump once said “didn’t hold any cards,” delivered a stunning blow to roughly 34 percent of the Russian strategic bomber fleet responsible for launching cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities.

“This is a turning point,” one SBU source said. “Our drones are now reaching far into the enemy’s rear, where the planes that drop bombs on our civilians take off. Their impunity is over.”

In the balance: Resilience, innovation, and surprise have been Ukraine’s strengths since Russia launched its “special military operation” in February 2022. The strike demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to hit targets deep within the Russian interior — “as far north as Murmansk above the Arctic Circle, and as far east as Irkutsk, over 4,000 km from Ukraine.” Sanctuary — and security — was lost.

Today Ukraine strikes deep within the Russian interior — and occupied Crimea — routinely with its arsenal of Fire Point munitions. Russian air defenses have been rendered ineffective — evidenced by Mr. Putin turning to Mr. Trump to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow.

THE BELARUS SIDESHOW

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is at it again.

Mr. Putin’s puppet in Minsk felt compelled — or was directed — to demonstrate a military capability along his border with Ukraine. He described it as a “rotational mobilization of selected units” to “prepare for war.”

Russia is in trouble and the Kremlin needs a distraction — momentum has shifted back in Kyiv’s favor. In the deep fight, in the “kill zones” on Ukraine’s battlefields, and in the supply lines — the “land bridge” to Crimea. Intolerable and untenable — and delivered exclusively by Ukrainian-manufactured weapons.

The Kremlin requires a credible threat of a second front and called upon Mr. Lukashenko.

The rhetoric between the two countries is heating up after an exchange between Mr. Lukashenko and Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Commander Robert Brovdi, who warned the leader “against actions that could further draw Minsk into the war,” adding that Ukraine had “identified 500 potential targets in Belarus.”

Mr. Lukashenko responded that Belarus had identified a single, highly significant target in Ukraine, with “precise coordinates” — implying the use of a weapon of mass destruction, possibly a tactical nuclear warhead Russia delivered to Belarus in June 2023.

The comment came after Belarus and Russia held joint nuclear drills involving Russian weapons deployed in Belarus. Russian arsenals there include the Oreshnik missile system.

In the balance: Mr. Lukashenko allowed the Kremlin to stage ground forces in Belarus and permitted it to launch its northern invasion of Ukraine towards Kyiv and Chernihiv. He has provided additional support as well — training, medical, weapons, and munitions, but has never authorized his military to fight alongside them.

This is more likely another demonstration designed to pull Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas region. Mr. Lukashenko needs to be careful how far he takes this though: Mr. Putin’s record of living up to his end of the bargain — e.g., Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and now Iran — has been one way.