Nevada Governor’s Race Tied in Democratic Poll
Cook Political Report rates the contest a toss-up.
LAS VEGAS — Nevada’s gubernatorial race is a dead heat, with Republican Governor Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford tied at 44 percent each, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 15 and 16.
The Democrat-aligned poll of 558 Nevada voters found 12 percent undecided. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The result comes as Nevada remains the only state Cook Political Report rates an incumbent governor’s reelection a toss-up, a distinction that underscores how competitive the race has become heading into November. (The other four toss-up races, in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin, are for open seats.) It’s one of seven swing states President Trump won in 2024.
Nevada’s economy has long been influenced by tourism, hospitality and gaming, particularly in Las Vegas, although the state has pursued greater economic diversification.
Las Vegas welcomed 38.5 million visitors in 2025, down 7.5 percent, or about 3.1 million visitors, from 2024, per the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
Control of the governor’s office — and its veto pen — could be crucial. Mr. Lombardo has vetoed measures passed by the Democratic-controlled Legislature, making hold over the governor’s office consequential when the two elected branches disagree.
The survey was circulated Wednesday along with a memo from Chris Sloan, political director of the Democratic Governors Association. He wrote the poll result was “a significant warning sign” for Mr. Lombardo, noting that the governor and his allies have spent or reserved more than $27 million on advertising against Mr. Ford while the latter’s campaign has yet to begin significant paid communication of its own.
The Nevada Independent first reported the poll and obtained the DGA memo.
The survey also measured the candidates’ favorability. Mr. Lombardo was viewed favorably by 39 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 45 percent, with 17 percent unsure. Mr. Ford’s numbers were lower across the board: 28 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable, and 39 percent not sure, reflecting comparatively limited name recognition statewide.
On national politics, 43 percent of Nevada voters said they approve of Mr. Trump’s job performance, while 54% disapprove. Asked whether the state is headed in the right direction, 30 percent of respondents said yes, while 55 percent said Nevada has “gotten off on the wrong track.”
The memo cited additional findings it argued favored Mr. Ford. Fifty-three percent of voters said Mr. Lombardo “doesn’t stand up to Trump enough,” compared with 30% who said he stands up to the president “about the right amount.” On the economy, 47% of voters said they agreed more with Mr. Ford’s argument that Mr. Lombardo has not done enough to address high costs, compared with 30 percent who agreed with the competing argument that global forces are to blame.
Mr. Sloan also pointed to a July 2 audio of Mr. Lombardo referring to President Trump as his “commanding officer” on immigration issues, which he cast as evidence of the governor’s continued alignment with the president.
The governor, a former Clark County sheriff who defeated incumbent Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022, said his relationship with Mr. Trump prevented immigration-enforcement operations in Las Vegas on the scale seen in some other states.
The memo also highlighted Hispanic and Latino voters, who made up 17 percent of the sample. Among that group, 68 percent viewed Mr. Lombardo unfavorably, and 74% said Nevada is on the wrong track. Fifty-seven percent agreed with Mr. Ford on costs, compared with 47 percent of voters overall.
The Hispanic and Latino subgroup represented approximately 95 respondents and carries a larger margin of error than the full sample, however.
Overall, poll respondents recalled splitting evenly on the 2024 race, 48 percent for President Trump and 48 percent for Kamala Harris. The survey’s Trump number is about 2.59 percentage points lower than the actual vote share; the president won the Silver State with 50.59 percent of ballots versus 47.49 percent for the Democrat.
Nevada’s voter rolls reflect the “swing state” nature of politics here. As of July 1, the state had 971,979 voters registered as nonpartisan — meaning no party affiliation — compared with 674,799 registered Democrats and 660,421 registered Republicans, according to Nevada secretary of state data. That leaves nonpartisan registration ahead of Democratic registration by about 297,000 voters and ahead of Republican registration by nearly 312,000, a gap of roughly 300,000 in each direction. The state also had 102,599 voters registered with the Independent American Party, 18,051 registered Libertarians, and 40,310 registered under other parties, bringing total active registration to 2,468,159.
The poll’s sample identified as 35 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 32 percent independent or unaffiliated and was conducted by landline and text message. Respondents are 69 percent white, 17 percent Hispanic or Latino, and 9 percent black; 72% live in the Las Vegas media market.
The Washington Star did not immediately receive comment from Ford and Lombardo campaign representatives.
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