Michigan Primary Day Finds GOP, Dems in Same Boat
Two races matter Tuesday night.
Two statewide primaries matter in Michigan this year, and Democrats and Republicans find themselves in the same dynamic in both races as polls close tonight.
There is no incumbent in either the Democratic Senate primary or the GOP gubernatorial primary. In both contests, an establishment-favored candidate is facing a grassroots-favored candidate.
Elected Michigan Democrats prefer Congresswoman Haley Stevens. She’s stacked all the right endorsements — from Governor Gretchen Whitmer, from Senator Gary Peters, from ex-Senator Debbie Stabenow.
But Abdul El-Sayed has the wind at his back. He fills auditoriums. He claims that where Ms. Stevens is backed by the money, he is backed by “the many.” And he believes this will bear itself out in the election results.
What Mr. El-Sayed lacks in Michigan endorsements, he’s tried to make up for with national figures like Senator Bernie Sanders, streamers such as Hasan Piker, and the cavalcade of influencers who descended on the Great Lakes State to boost his candidacy.
Even Ms. Stevens and her supporters, though, are openly discussing the possibility of his victory. Standing next to Mr. Peters, Ms. Stevens said she would back Mr. El-Sayed in the general election if he prevails in the primary.
Candidates don’t often entertain scenarios that involve them losing. A CNN personality asked Mallory McMorrow, then the third contender in the Democrat primary, in June if she would drop out. The next week, she did. The TV interview was just foreshadowing; by tomorrow, Ms. Stevens’ statement could be viewed as the same.
In the governor’s race, businessman Perry Johnson is trying to defeat Congressman John James. Mr. Johnson has spent millions of his own money and avoided taking donations. In the weeks leading up to primary day, his bus tour has been hitting multiple stops per day.
Mr. James has the most prominent endorsement of all, from President Trump. Mr. Johnson, on the other hand, has surrounded himself with ex-candidates and grassroots figures. From Kevin Kijewski (former candidate for state attorney general) to Monica Yatooma (former candidate for secretary of state) to Lance Griffin, who promotes the get-out-the-vote message with 10X Votes.
Mr. Johnson drew hundreds Monday night to an event venue in suburban Detroit. Mr. James drew dozens to a bar in suburban Detroit.
In both races, the grassroots candidate has visible shows of support but faces questions about electability in November.
Yes, Abdul El-Sayed draws a crowd. But he also draws the ire of Republicans, who don’t want a Michigan version of Zohran Mamdani in the Senate. Mr. El-Sayed’s voters might show up, but would they bring Republicans with them?
And yes, Perry Johnson has a lot of money and plenty of grassroots fans. But statewide elections are decided by casual followers of politics not diehards. Can Mr. Johnson, who is 78, connect with the casual voter? Can he do it in the three months between primary day and Election Day? And can he do it against the Democrat, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who will administer the November election and did not have a competitive primary?
For Ms. Stevens and Mr. James, the question is whether they could bring the El-Sayed and Johnson voter back into the fold if they win.
Mr. El-Sayed himself has argued that Israel and its lobbying agents would see no difference between a Senator Haley Stevens and a Senator Mike Rogers. Can such a sentiment be reversed? And would the reversal be believed?
Mr. Johnson has argued Mr. James is not working hard. After skipping many debates in the early months of the primary, Mr. James has only participated in two, and in one of them he directed a slavery reference at Mr. Johnson. Can Mr. James, a black man, mend fences with grassroots voters, which he would need to win?
These are all open questions. Polls close at 8 p.m. The future of Michigan is up for grabs.
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