Iran and America's 60-Day Kabuki-Theater Act Must Close Early
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President Trump touted on Truth Social Monday, “Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south.” He then demanded that gas companies lower prices to $2.50 a gallon.
Normally, that is routine domestic political messaging; but these are not normal times.
Iran — especially its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hardliners led by Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi — is also closely following Mr. Trump’s Truth Social posts and using them to find points of leverage as the memorandum-of-understanding negotiations play out.
From the IRGC’s perspective, it’s a negotiating gift every time Mr. Trump boasts about low gas prices. Plus, it only reaffirms for Iran why it is paramount for the country to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz after the war is over.
So why is Mr. Trump seemingly falling into the IRGC’s rather obvious negotiating trap? Why give it that kind of negotiating leverage? Is it naïveté?
Or is Mr. Trump playing a deeper game?
In the balance: Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s negotiating approach between Israel and Lebanon is giving us the answer. Unlike what Vice President JD Vance told CNBC, Mr. Rubio is not “extending an open hand to the Iranians.”
Quite the opposite, Mr. Rubio’s trilateral peace framework agreement Israel, Lebanon, and the United States signed Friday punched Iran square in the nose.
The tri-party pact made it clear that under its terms, neither Iran nor Hezbollah can have a role going forward in Lebanon. Tehran during the pre-memorandum negotiations worked hard to tie Hezbollah’s future in Lebanon to any future permanent peace deal between the United States and Iran.
Essentially, Mr. Rubio’s approach said that is not going to happen on his watch. The secretary of state, long an Iran hawk, fully realizes there is no negotiating with the IRGC. Either you beat Mr. Vahidi or he wins.
We strongly prefer Mr. Rubio’s hand. The IRGC is never going to follow through on any deal it may sign with America.
Need evidence?
We are already into day 13 of the 60-day ceasefire talks. Thus far, the only progress the United States and Iran have made is to agree how to begin talking to each other.
During this time, the IRGC has twice attacked international shipping lawfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz in United Nations-recognized international waters.
Mr. Vahidi is hardly extending a hand of friendship back to Mr. Vance. Indeed, he and his fellow Iranian hardliners are openly giving the vice president in return what in polite company is called the “bird.”
Iran’s negotiating team keeps talking peace. But Mr. Vahidi keeps kinetically signaling war.
Decision point: Mr. Trump surely knows there is no real prospect of achieving a permanent peace deal with Tehran as long as Mr. Vahidi and the IRGC remain the de facto leaders of Iran.
What we are seeing play out between the two countries is a 60-day Kabuki theater production. Both sides, for domestic political and economic reasons, are choosing to take a time out from all-out war and confrontation.
That said, Iran risks underestimating Mr. Trump. It sees him as naïve and falling into the IRGC’s Strait of Hormuz negotiating trap. Yet ironically, it is Mr. Vahidi and the IRGC who risk falling into Mr. Trump’s Kabuki theater trapdoor.
Why?
Mr. Rubio’s approach to Iran in Lebanon reassures us the White House knows there can be no enduring peace in the Middle East until the IRGC is gone. It still is, as we penned in these pages yesterday, the IRGC, stupid!
Enough Kabuki theater. It is past time to let Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, finish the job in Iran and rid the region of the IRGC.
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