Did Iran Capitulate After Trump's Threat To Take Kharg Island?
The Pentagon has been developing plans for months.
President Trump posted on Truth Social today, “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points.”
But the president was all over the place this morning, telling Fox News, “My preference has always been to take Kharg Island,” but “I don’t know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with you.” He then turned around and said he didn’t want to use ground troops, though: “We could walk in there tomorrow” and “take over the place.”
Yet just saying it out loud has stirred the pot — in Washington and Tehran. In today’s world of “strategic ambiguity,” deception, cryptic messaging, disinformation, and taunting, nothing is certain until it happens.
In Washington, pundits accuse the president of showing his hand and putting American soldiers at risk. In Tehran, Kharg Island is Iran’s economic lifeline; 90 percent of its oil exports go through the port. So too are the billions of dollars in frozen accounts Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened to give to Gulf State nations as retribution for Iranian attacks.
Was it enough to energize Iran to reconsider Mr. Trump’s demands? Maybe. “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have,” the president wrote this afternoon on Truth Social, “cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.”
We have heard this before. But who is the “highest level of Iranian leadership?” If it is not Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi or Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the president is just spinning his wheels and “the dance” continues.
In the balance: This is not the first time we have heard serious consideration to attack and secure Kharg Island. In March, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg advocated taking Kharg Island. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command have been developing plans for months.
The capability exists. Military assets are in place to execute the mission when the president gives the order — U.S. Marines, paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, and U.S. Army Rangers, supported by U.S. naval gunfire and close air support from U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs and Army AH-64 Apache helicopters.
Decision point: It would appear the president has already arrived at a decision point, perhaps at Qatar’s request, not to attack. The deal seems to be outweighing winning the war. What remains to be seen are the terms of the deal, if one actually exists — and the enforcement mechanism.
What is certain: Any “deal” with Iran, short of its surrender, that leaves the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in power will result in continued instability in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.
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