Texas Democrats might be poised to end decades in the electoral wilderness, leading analyst Cook Political Report said Thursday.
The firm changed its predictive ratings for the Lone Star State’s key races this year, moving the Senate contest to “Toss Up” from “Lean Republican” status and the gubernatorial contest from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
For a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988 and put a Democrat in the governor’s mansion in 1990, either victory would be a seismic shift towards a “blue” Texas or “Blexas,” as some advocates call it.
Two state representatives are vying to move Texas to the left this year. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat, is challenging GOP nominee Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, who beat Senator John Cornyn in the primary. Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican seeking an unprecedented fourth term, is up against Gina Hinojosa, also an Austin Democrat.
Of the two contests, the Senate race is the tightest according to a Texas Politics Project tally of election polling. Mr. Paxton leads in three of the eight polls listed, Mr. Talarico is up in three, and two are even.
The gubernatorial race appears less uncertain, despite the Cook ratings change. TPP’s report has Mr. Abbott up in all the polls, by margins of between 1 and 8 points.
A Thursday Newsweek report captured Democrats’ enthusiasm, with partisans claiming better organization, more funding, and a vulnerable GOP Senate nominee in Mr. Paxton, who’s been plagued by troubles in his personal life.
Republicans, however, can recall previous elections in which charismatic Democratic candidates were widely touted as potential “GOP slayers,” only to lose at the polls.
Beto O’Rourke came close to unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, but fell short despite raising $80 million during that campaign cycle. Six years later, Democrat Colin Allred also raised $80 million to challenge Mr. Cruz but fell short by 8.5 points on Election Day.
Mr. O’Rourke swung at the Texas statewide piñata again in 2022, challenging Mr. Abbott’s bid for a third term. He lost that contest by almost 11 points.
