Betting Against President Trump, Iran Closed the Hormuz Strait (Yet Again!)
It's starting to feel like a soap opera.
The drama playing out between the United States and Iran is beginning to feel like an old-fashioned soap opera. Except we cannot figure out if it is a typical maudlin episode of “As the World Turns” or if it’s “Soap,” the 1970s classic dark comedy.
Either way, yet another plot twist occurred Saturday in the never-ending drama between Washington and Tehran. Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, declared on X, “In response to Trump’s threats, we announce the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
He was referring to the U.S. demand Saturday that Iran publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz to be open with no preconditions for commercial passage.
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters is Iran’s joint operational command that coordinates its regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As such, Mr. Zolfaghari’s words carry weight.
Shortly afterwards Mr. Zolfaghari cryptically retweeted a post from yesterday encouraging his 146,000 followers to follow another Iranian account on X for the latest “news of the Iran war through the Iran War account.”
After a rather short two-minute commercial break, the Iran War account posted an urgent update, claiming, “Special forces affiliated with the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are deploying mines in the shipping lane designated by the Sultanate of Oman.”
Minutes later, the scene switched back to Mr. Zolfaghari. He posted on X, “The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a waterway; it is the very depth of [Iranian] national security.”
Essentially, Mr. Zolfaghari is bluntly asserting that Iranian control of the key strategic international waterway is a non-negotiable red line for the IRGC and its all-powerful militant commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi.
Iran’s actions were undoubtedly calculated. The IRGC Navy struck an unidentified ship Sunday transiting what has become known as the southern route passing through Omani territorial waters and, in effect, safeguarded by the U.S. Navy.
Tehran views such passages as a violation of the memorandum of understanding and justifies its attacks — even though Iran keeps denying responsibility — by claiming that they are “unauthorized vessels.”
Mr. Vahidi was clearly throwing down the gauntlet and was betting President Trump would not pick it up as he tested the White House’s resolve. He was also likely betting that it would result in a cliffhanger while the White House wrangled with how to respond.
His bet quickly proved wrong.
In the balance: By 7:15 p.m., U.S. Central Command made that clear. It announced on X that U.S. “forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
CENTCOM stated the damage was significant, and the vessel was dead in the water. A civilian crew member is also reported to be missing after the ship was struck in its engine room by an Iranian projectile.
As Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth posted on X Saturday evening, “Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay.” The real question, however, is how much.
Barak Ravid, reporting for Axios, stated on X that a U.S. official told him that CENTCOM was attacking Iranian “Air surveillance radars, missile and drone storage, missile and drone launch sites, surface surveillance radars, surface to air missile launchers.”
If that is it, then the United States rinsing and repeating target sets is not going to get the job done; especially if it proves true that Iran is successfully mining Omani waters.
Decision point: The time has come — indeed we are way past time — for Mr. Trump to cancel this Iranian-authored soap opera that is strangling the world’s oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz.
The IRGC, despite losing today’s bet, is still betting that Mr. Trump will be unwilling to return to a full-scale war due to domestic U.S. economic pressures and the upcoming November midterms.
Late Saturday evening, Mr. Vahidi doubled down on that bet. The IRGC began firing ballistic missiles at Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Mr. Trump must disabuse Mr. Vahidi of his gambit. So long as Mr. Vahidi and his fellow IRGC hardliners remain in power, Iran will never adhere to any MoU or comprehensive peace deal.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
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