Belarus Folds as Ukraine's Zelensky Holds the Winning Hand

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The president yesterday celebrated 32 years of the Security Service of Ukraine’s Center of Special Operations, “Alpha.” Photo: Volodymyr Zelensky / X

BELARUS CRIES ‘UNCLE!’ TO ZELENSKY

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky late last week gave Alexander Lukashenko, his Belarusian counterpart, seven days to remove Russian relay equipment the Kremlin is using to target Ukraine.

Mr. Zelensky said on X that “a week is enough” time. Pressing his advantage, he warned Mr. Lukashenko, “If he doesn’t do it, we will.”

The Ukrainian leader is referring to Russian retransmitters attached to communication towers located in Belarus. Mr. Zelensky directly attributed Moscow’s use of the relay stations to the deaths of Ukrainian civilians, including children.

In the balance: Mr. Lukashenko, as we noted at The Washington Star this month, is already distancing himself from Russia given President Vladimir Putin’s mounting military losses in Ukraine and at home.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vowed Tuesday the Kremlin will “take all necessary measures under its security treaty with Belarus in response to what it sees as threats from Ukraine.”

Mr. Lavrov emphasized that Moscow is “ready to take the full range of measures” to protect Belarus. Full range is widely understood as Russian code for the use of nuclear weapons.

Decision point: Mr. Zelensky announced Wednesday the Russian relay stations in Belarus have been turned off. Either Mr. Lukashenko got the message Kyiv was sending him or he found Mr. Lavrov’s vows of protection to be lacking.

Either way, Belarus backed down. The tables in Eastern Europe have turned, and for now, at least, it is Mr. Zelensky who is holding the trump cards.

UKRAINE IS TURNING THE LIGHTS OFF IN CRIMEA

The Kyiv Independent reported early Wednesday morning in the wake of sustained Ukrainian drone and ballistic-missile strikes throughout June that roughly 50% of Crimea’s electricity is offline. The shortage is so severe that fuel for civilian use across the Russian-occupied territory is being rationed.

In the balance: It is tourist season in Crimea. Yet instead of travelers encountering long lines to Black Sea beaches, videos on X are capturing Russians fleeing the peninsula en masse. They are reportedly running out of gas and creating traffic jams as they try to exit the war zone.

Decision point: Kyiv is rapidly accelerating its military efforts to make the strategic Black Sea peninsula untenable for Russian occupation forces.

The question is no longer whether Mr. Putin’s $4 billion Kerch bridge that connects Crimea to Russia will be destroyed. It is only a question of when Mr. Zelensky delivers that blow to Moscow. Until then, Ukraine is intent on keeping the lights off in Crimea.

ICYMI, PACIFIC IS HEATING UP

The 30th Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise kicked off today in the Hawaiian Islands. Led by the U.S. Pacific Fleet, the biennial drill involves 31 countries and features a multinational force of about 40 surface ships, 140 aircraft, and more than 25,000 personnel.

The joint exercises, which continue through July 31, are designed to build interoperability between the U.S. Navy and its allies across the Indo-Pacific.

RIMPAC practices a wide array of sea and air military capabilities, including “amphibious operations, gunnery and missile proficiency, anti-submarine warfare, air defense exercises, military medicine, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, counter-piracy, mine clearance, explosive ordnance disposal, and diving and salvage operations,” the Pentagon says.

In the balance: This year’s exercise comes at a time of growing tension between China and Taiwan, as well as reports that the People’s Liberation Army has erected new U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyer replicas to use as practice targets.

Decision point: Alarmingly, in early June, Chinese coast-guard ships began issuing direct commands to exercise authority over foreign commercial ships on the Pacific side of Taiwan. The United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom quickly condemned Beijing over the incidents.

An American official in Taipei told The Wall Street Journal that “China’s actions are deeply destabilizing.”

Essentially, as Raymond Powell noted, Beijing’s objective is to create a “slow-motion quarantine that gradually isolates Taiwan.” The onus is now on the White House to put an end to it.